Jamie Dimon Says Trump’s Tariffs Could Trigger U.S. Recession and Credit Defaults
Key Highlights:
Washington / April 9, 2025 — JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon issued a stark warning on Tuesday, stating that President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs could lead the United States into a recession, citing rising interest rates, persistent inflation, and deepening credit stress as urgent concerns.
Dimon, speaking in an interview on Fox Business’ “Mornings with Maria”, said that while the U.S. economy remains resilient for now, the cumulative weight of trade uncertainty and financial tightening is pushing the system toward a breaking point.
“If we don’t make rapid progress in trade negotiations, the risks will compound — from slowing growth to an actual recession,” Dimon said.
3 Major Economic Threats Identified
Dimon outlined three primary risk factors exacerbated by the current tariff policy:
- Persistent Inflation: Trade-driven price increases are beginning to seep into core inflation metrics.
- Widening Credit Spreads: Market volatility has created stress in corporate lending and bond markets.
- Rising Interest Rates: The Fed’s stance, influenced by inflation and geopolitical risk, could deepen borrowing pressures.
These forces, he warned, may result in a wave of credit defaults as consumer and corporate borrowers struggle with higher costs.
Jamie Dimon Echoes Concerns from Washington and Wall Street
Dimon’s recession warning comes amid widespread volatility across global financial markets, already battered by Trump’s 104% tariffs on Chinese imports and similar measures targeting multiple U.S. allies.
In his recent annual letter to shareholders, Dimon wrote that inflation and supply chain disruptions sparked by tariffs are placing structural strain on the economy:
“Whether or not this causes a recession is still in question — but we are certainly slowing down.”
“America Alone” Is Not a Strategy, Says Dimon
The JPMorgan chief also took aim at the broader geopolitical strategy underpinning the tariff push. Dimon cautioned against an “America alone” approach, suggesting that the erosion of traditional alliances may have long-term economic and strategic consequences.
“Strong military and economic alliances are critical to confronting global challenges like AI and semiconductor leadership — especially when facing rising powers like China,” he said.
Financial Sector Braces for Continued Shockwaves
Dimon’s remarks align with broader Wall Street sentiment, as investors digest historic swings in equity markets. The S&P 500 fell 1.6% on Tuesday despite starting the day with a 4.1% rally, while the Dow lost 320 points and the Nasdaq dropped over 2%.
With JPMorgan shares among those impacted, Dimon’s statement also serves as a clear message to policymakers: the financial sector is preparing for a prolonged period of uncertainty, and the risks tied to protectionism may outweigh the perceived benefits.
A Call for Urgent Dialogue
As the U.S.-China trade war intensifies and Trump’s tariff measures expand, Jamie Dimon’s recession warning adds to the growing chorus of leaders calling for recalibration.
“This is not a drill,” Dimon emphasized. “The consequences of this trade path are real — and we must act now to prevent deeper economic damage.”
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