The Media Sector Performance Q3FY25 is expected to show a subdued trend, according to a recent report by Nuvama. Despite certain segments such as music and subscription-based services indicating growth, the overall results for the media industry appear to remain muted due to several mixed factors. This article delves into the forecasted performance of key media companies, including PVR INOX and Saregama, and explores the expectations for broadcasters and advertising revenues during this period.
Media Sector Performance Q3FY25: Key Highlights
PVR INOX: A Mixed Bag
PVR INOX is poised for an 8% YoY increase in revenue and a 3% QoQ revenue rise, according to the Nuvama report. This will be largely due to an uptick in average ticket prices (ATP), advertising revenue, and other operating income, which is expected to see a 36% QoQ growth. However, a major challenge for PVR INOX remains the decline in footfalls, which is anticipated to fall by 4% QoQ. Despite an overall lackluster October, the company’s ability to push revenue through ATP and advertising revenue is expected to provide some cushion.
Saregama: A Star Performer
Saregama is predicted to outperform most of its peers, with 52% YoY revenue growth and 28% QoQ growth. The primary drivers of this growth are live events, which are expected to surge 8.5 times YoY, and the robust performance of music licensing revenues, which are likely to grow by 18% YoY. The surge in live events is seen as a key differentiator for Saregama in the competitive music industry.
Broadcasters Face Ad Revenue Struggles
Broadcasters, however, are in a more challenging position. Ad revenues are expected to decline YoY due to muted advertising spend from FMCG companies. Despite this, there is some optimism in the subscription revenue segment, which is anticipated to improve thanks to price hikes and an expanding subscriber base. This improvement in subscription revenue may provide broadcasters with some relief in an otherwise difficult period.
Outlook for the Media Sector
Looking beyond Q3FY25, the report suggests that the media sector could see a recovery in FY26, especially with expectations of an ad revenue rebound. This recovery will likely be fueled by consumer companies regaining pricing power and a potential reversal of the urban slowdown in the second half of 2025 (H2CY25). However, Q4FY25 is expected to remain challenging for multiplexes due to the limited lineup of major movie releases and the gaps between film schedules, especially as the exam season disrupts regular theatergoers’ schedules.
In summary, the Media Sector Performance in Q3FY25 shows a mixed outlook. While some companies, such as Saregama, are expected to experience remarkable growth, others like PVR INOX and broadcasters are facing significant challenges. The sector’s performance is heavily influenced by factors such as advertising revenue trends, consumer demand, and competition from digital platforms. As we look ahead to FY26, there are reasons to be cautiously optimistic about a recovery, but Q3FY25’s subdued results highlight the continuing pressures on the industry.
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