Sensex Today: Cautious Start Expected on April 16 After Gift Nifty Drops 124 Points and Global Markets Turn Weak
After a stellar rally on April 15, the Sensex is likely to open flat to negative today, April 16, as global market cues turn jittery and Gift Nifty signals a weak opening. Nasdaq’s overnight decline and Asian market softness may weigh on investor sentiment.
Key Highlights:
The BSE Sensex, which rallied by 1,577.63 points (2.10%) to settle at 76,734.89 on Monday, may see a mild correction or flat start today, Wednesday, April 16, 2025, as negative global sentiment takes over. Despite strong domestic momentum, global equity markets have turned cautious, and Gift Nifty’s steep fall hints at early pressure on Dalal Street.
Recap: Sensex Closed on a Strong Note on April 15
On April 15, the Sensex surged over 1,500 points, driven by heavy buying in IT, banking, and FMCG stocks. It touched an intraday high of 76,907.63 before settling at 76,734.89. The rally was driven by:
- Strong domestic macro indicators
- Steady institutional flows
- Robust Q4 earnings expectations
- Positive signals from China’s industrial output data
However, the global market setup has shifted overnight.
Global Market Cues: Nasdaq Weakness Dampens Sentiment
The Nasdaq Composite Index closed 8.32 points lower at 16,823.17, while Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 66.50 points (-0.35%) in early Asian trade, reflecting continued tech-sector pressure.
The weakness came on the back of:
- Interest rate concerns
- Disappointing earnings guidance
- Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East
The S&P 500 and Dow Jones also saw mild declines.
Asian Market Opening – April 16 Overview
Asian equities are mostly in the red:
- Nikkei 225 (Japan): Down 0.26%
- KOSPI (Korea): Down 0.19%
- Hang Seng (Hong Kong): Up 0.37% (marginal recovery)
- SSE Composite (China): Down 0.12%
- SZSE Component (Shenzhen): Down 0.45%
- TAIEX (Taiwan): Down 1.28%
This widespread weakness, particularly in tech-heavy indices, suggests that investors are de-risking ahead of key earnings announcements and macro events.
Gift Nifty Update: Predicting Sensex Opening
Gift Nifty, an early indicator of Indian market sentiment, was trading at 23,260.5, down 124 points or 0.53% at 6:30 AM IST.
This indicates that the Sensex could open 100–150 points lower, potentially testing the 76,500–76,600 zone in early trade. The gap-up momentum from Monday is unlikely to continue unless fresh domestic triggers emerge.
Sensex Prediction for April 16, 2025
| Type | Prediction/Levels |
|---|---|
| Opening Bias | Flat to Negative |
| Likely Open | Around 76,550 – 76,600 |
| Support Zones | 76,400 and 76,100 |
| Resistance Zones | 76,900 and 77,200 |
Technical Indicators
- RSI: Above 70 – Market is in overbought territory
- MACD: Strong buy signal but divergence emerging
- Volume: High volume observed on Monday, signaling institutional participation
- Trend: Short-term bullish, but a consolidation is due
If Sensex fails to sustain above 76,600, it could retrace to 76,400 intraday. On the upside, 76,900–77,200 may cap gains.
Key Triggers to Watch Today
- Corporate Earnings: Watch for results from key banking and IT names
- FII-DII Flow: FIIs were net buyers on Monday; any reversal will impact momentum
- India VIX: Slight rise suggests traders should be cautious
- Crude Oil Prices: At $90 per barrel, could add inflationary pressure
- Global Data: US retail sales and Chinese GDP figures expected today
Today’s opening for Sensex is expected to be subdued, tracking Gift Nifty losses and weak global cues. While domestic sentiment remains supportive, global risks and technical overbought conditions could lead to profit booking in early trade.
A strong rebound can only be expected if FIIs continue to buy aggressively and earnings beat street estimates. Otherwise, traders should brace for range-bound movement with a slight downward bias during the day.
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