Politics

Nilambur’s Fiercest Fight Yet: Legacy, Left Gambit & A Spoiler in the Wings

As Kerala gears up for the Nilambur bypoll, Aryadan Shoukath, M Swaraj, and PV Anvar lock horns in a high-voltage electoral clash

New Delhi, June 15: The Nilambur by‑election, set for June 19, is taking unexpected turns—tensely pitched into a three‑cornered battle: the seasoned legacy of Congress, a bold challenge from CPI(M), and a wildcard entrant that could redefine the contest.

The Heir vs The Handpicked: Congress Legacy on Trial

Aryadan Shoukath, the UDF’s torchbearer, is the son of the late Aryadan Muhammed—a towering figure in Malabar politics who held Nilambur for eight terms. As Nilambur’s first municipal chair and a film producer of socially themed works, Shoukath brings a heady mix of grassroots affection and cultural credibility. His campaign embraces personal warmth—walking among voters, calling them by name, hugging children, even slipping seamlessly into quiet conversations off‑camera . Yet the question lingers: will brand “Aryadan” still resonate when his legacy carries heavy expectations?

Swaraj: Vijayan’s Gamble and Youthful Assertiveness

On the other side, CPI(M)’s youthful face, M Swaraj, was handpicked by CM Pinarayi Vijayan at a state secretariat meeting—signalling a deliberate, high‑stakes intervention. A former Tripunithura MLA, he has a reputation as a fiery speaker—once remarking Achuthanandan rather harshly—and counts as one of CPM’s rising stars. His campaign is vigorous and crafted—a temple‑style percussion troupe heralds his arrival, hymns resonate, sweets are distributed with a punch‑line: “Ladoos are already here. We have won.” Yet questions remain: is he a charismatic outsider in Malappuram or a powerful force?

The Spoiler: Anvar’s Unfinished Story

Adding a twist is P V Anvar—the former MLA whose January resignation triggered the bypoll. Now contesting as an independent under Trinamool Congress’ banner, Anvar is portraying himself as the real spoiler—a bitter critic of both fronts. He accuses Vijayan of betrayal, claims the CM undermined both VS Achuthanandan and dual promises around minority rights and NRC/CAA, and even alludes to corruption investigations involving Vijayan’s family. His text‑heavy hoardings list grievances and pledges—though few voters are stopping to read them. Still, his presence could fracture the UDF’s Muslim vote, which forms around 43% in a constituency where Hindus form 45%, and Muslims the remainder.

Fault Lines: Polarisation, Welfare, Communal Rhetoric

The campaign atmosphere has become increasingly charged. LDF accuses UDF of communal polarisation—charging they are exploiting Malappuram sentiments and minority identity. UDF counters, accusing Pinarayi of anti‑Malappuram remarks tying the district with gold smuggling and extremism, raising the stakes in religious and regional identity politics. At the same time, the debate over pension disbursements—labeled by Congress as “electoral bribes” and defended by LDF as rightful entitlements—continues to fume.

What This Means for Assembly Polls Ahead

Interestingly enough, despite being a by‑poll, Nilambur has become a proxy for next year’s Kerala Assembly elections. A strong showing by LDF and Swaraj could signal Pinarayi’s third‑term viability, countering anti‑incumbency. A Congress resurgence under Shoukath may revive the UDF’s fortunes. But the spoiler factor—Anvar—could tilt the balance unpredictably, forcing vote splits and raising campaign intensity.

Race Poised for Nail‑biter

Voting is June 19; counting on June 23. What seemed like a straightforward family‑legacy victory for Congress now faces a calculated CPS(M) strategy and a spoiler with history. Nilambur, far from being a quiet monsoon by‑poll, is unfolding as a high‑octane election theatre—with personal loyalties, ideological battles, and factional feuds all up for grabs. Barring last‑minute surprises, one thing’s clear: this micro‑contest carries macro consequences.


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Author Profile
Raj Chaubey
Reporting Fellow at 

Raj Chaubey is a Reporting Fellow at Hindustan Herald, specializing in political and geopolitical news. As a student at Delhi University, Raj combines academic rigor with a commitment to investigative journalism, aiming to uncover the broader implications of current events. His daily articles strive to offer our audience a deeper understanding of complex political landscapes and their global connections.

Source
Indian Express Times of India

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